To find out about the general assumptions of the model (which started in 2004), click this link. See how it performed in 2006, 2008, and 2010.
In any case, forget about those highly subjective and unstable Opinion Polls and take a look at the current 2012 Presidential Wagering Model Prediction (based on contract bid price):
Happy
Voting!
November
7, 2012
WELL! The Wagering Model has triumphed again, indicating the winner (Mr. Obama) about 20 days before the voting and getting the absolute electoral vote count very close about 1 week before the actual election. The Chickens didn't Come Home to Roost for either Mr. Obama or the Wagering Model! Dare I say, the Model did not lay an egg. More data analysis will be posted in the near future.
November 10, 2012
The humble Wagering Model far outclassed the much more sophisticated Berry-Bickers model. M. Berry and K. Bickers, professors at the University of Colorado, recently formulated a state-by-state model whose inputs are primarily economic data rather than poll data (used by other academic models). Using this approach, they had successfully predicted Presidential elections as far back as 1980. Toward the end of their October 2012 paper "Forecasting the 2012 Presidential Election with State-Level Economic Indicators" (published in Politics and Political Science 45 669, October 2012) they state:
"As figure 1 shows, the states we predict President Obama will carry include a substantially reduced set than those he carried in 2008 (ref 5). This is supported by the fact that no states won by McCain are predicted to flip to Obama. What is striking about our state-level economic indicator forecast is the expectation that Obama will lose almost all of the states currently considered as swing states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. Three other states that might be viewed as swing states—Michigan, New Mexico, and Nevada—are predicted to stay in Obama’s column. Our forecast is that the president will receive 213 Electoral College votes, putting him well short of the 270 needed to win reelection."
Clearly that didn't happen, and no doubt much will be written concerning why. And, for better or worse, we indeed may have Novus ordo seclorum and a new meaning for E pluribus unum. Perhaps to ponder... who "he" is, implied within Annuit cœptis!
This Presidential election and the Wagering Model put to rest (or continued to) several things: opinion polls as clear indicators and whether skew is important; the so-called "Shy Tory Factor" and "Bradley Effect". What was affirmed is the importance of communication and organization; the power of "divide and conquer"; the effectiveness of affinity group clusters with "tribe issues"; and the clever use of hard-core propaganda. What remains to be seen is whether the much-discussed 1% (wealthy people) or 47% (un-wealthy people) actually get what they thought they were voting against or for, and how stable "a house divided against itself" actually is! For clues, the 2014 mid-term election awaits...
WELL! The Wagering Model has triumphed again, indicating the winner (Mr. Obama) about 20 days before the voting and getting the absolute electoral vote count very close about 1 week before the actual election. The Chickens didn't Come Home to Roost for either Mr. Obama or the Wagering Model! Dare I say, the Model did not lay an egg. More data analysis will be posted in the near future.
November 10, 2012
The humble Wagering Model far outclassed the much more sophisticated Berry-Bickers model. M. Berry and K. Bickers, professors at the University of Colorado, recently formulated a state-by-state model whose inputs are primarily economic data rather than poll data (used by other academic models). Using this approach, they had successfully predicted Presidential elections as far back as 1980. Toward the end of their October 2012 paper "Forecasting the 2012 Presidential Election with State-Level Economic Indicators" (published in Politics and Political Science 45 669, October 2012) they state:
"As figure 1 shows, the states we predict President Obama will carry include a substantially reduced set than those he carried in 2008 (ref 5). This is supported by the fact that no states won by McCain are predicted to flip to Obama. What is striking about our state-level economic indicator forecast is the expectation that Obama will lose almost all of the states currently considered as swing states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. Three other states that might be viewed as swing states—Michigan, New Mexico, and Nevada—are predicted to stay in Obama’s column. Our forecast is that the president will receive 213 Electoral College votes, putting him well short of the 270 needed to win reelection."
Clearly that didn't happen, and no doubt much will be written concerning why. And, for better or worse, we indeed may have Novus ordo seclorum and a new meaning for E pluribus unum. Perhaps to ponder... who "he" is, implied within Annuit cœptis!
This Presidential election and the Wagering Model put to rest (or continued to) several things: opinion polls as clear indicators and whether skew is important; the so-called "Shy Tory Factor" and "Bradley Effect". What was affirmed is the importance of communication and organization; the power of "divide and conquer"; the effectiveness of affinity group clusters with "tribe issues"; and the clever use of hard-core propaganda. What remains to be seen is whether the much-discussed 1% (wealthy people) or 47% (un-wealthy people) actually get what they thought they were voting against or for, and how stable "a house divided against itself" actually is! For clues, the 2014 mid-term election awaits...
So... whether you felt Obama
was The Messiah Needing More Time
to Save the Planet or The
Evil One Who Has Actually Ensnared the 47%,
or ... whether Romney was Our Only Hope or a Daddy Warbux Come to Snuff Out Abortions & Prop Up the 1%,
... All you had to do was check the model web-site to know whether to do a Happy Dance or Rend Your Clothing!
(Just think of the Wicked Stress You Could Have Avoided)
In any case, trying a recommended wine is certainly the proper post-modern response,
... and is most Assuredly what I intend to do!
or ... whether Romney was Our Only Hope or a Daddy Warbux Come to Snuff Out Abortions & Prop Up the 1%,
... All you had to do was check the model web-site to know whether to do a Happy Dance or Rend Your Clothing!
(Just think of the Wicked Stress You Could Have Avoided)
In any case, trying a recommended wine is certainly the proper post-modern response,
... and is most Assuredly what I intend to do!
Page Text Last Updated: November 10, 2012
Graphs Were Updated Daily August-November 2012